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18/10/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 4th. October, 2014.

Randwick: Track Good.

R3 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Hampton Court
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $175,000 Roman Consul Stakes. 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Hallowed Crown
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Bart & James Cummings
Winner: Brazen Beau
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Trainer: Chris Waller

R5 $125,000 3YO & UP. Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Rising Romance
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Donna Logan
Winner: Moriarty
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Chris Waller

R6 $200,000 3YO & UP. Group 2. Premiere Stakes. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Famous Seamus
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Noel Mayfield-Smith

R8 $400,000 Flight Stakes. 3YO. Fillies. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: First Seal
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: John P. Thompson

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't win because of the barrier."
The Free Tipster Longshot horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 11/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 4/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 28/9/2014 & 26/9/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 11/10/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 4/10/2014
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 27/9/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 27/9/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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