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18/10/2014 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows recent results for horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week from the main Saturday horse race meetings held in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Flemington - 4/10/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sea Moon
60kg.
1
2520
$3.90
5/8
Sandown Hillside - 27/9/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Khutulun
60kg.
5
1300
$7.00
1/13
Great Lane
60kg.
4
1800
$9.00
5/10
Caulfield - 20/9/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lotion
60kg.
6
1700
$8.50
10/13
Flemington - 13/9/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Brambles
60kg.
7
1700
$8.00
1/11
Randwick - 6/9/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rock Sturdy
60kg.
6
1400
$2.35 fav.
4/8
Moonee Valley - 6/9/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hippopus
60kg.
1
2500
$7.00
7/7
Our Voodoo Prince
60kg.
7
1600
$7.00
3/11
 
This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't win because of the barrier."
The Free Tipster Longshot horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 11/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 4/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 28/9/2014 & 26/9/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 11/10/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 4/10/2014
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 27/9/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 27/9/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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