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18/10/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields


Best Tote Plus pays the best dividend of all three Australian TABs, plus an additional 5% boost to winnings on all Australian Thoroughbred races!

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 27th. September, 2014.

Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $200,000 3YO. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 6
Equal Favourite: Sweynesse
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: John O'Shea
Equal Favourite: Diamond Valores
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden

R2 $125,000 3YO & UP. Group 3. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Travolta
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $4.40
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Equal Favourite: Multilateral
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $4.40
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Deane Martin
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.50
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Bruce Wallace

R3 $100,000 3YO. Fillies. Listed. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Slightly Sweet
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Trainer: Jason Coyle
Winner: Abduction
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.40
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: John O'Shea


Doomben: Track Dead R1, Good R2 - R8.

R1 $45,000 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Coworth Park
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Luke Tarrant
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Black Ninja
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Toby Edmonds

R6 $55,000 0MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Show Harmony
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Luke Dittman
Trainer: Stephen Jones
Winner: Gundy Spirit
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Tegan Harrison
Trainer: Tony Gollan

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't win because of the barrier."
The Free Tipster Longshot horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 11/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 4/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 28/9/2014 & 26/9/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 11/10/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 4/10/2014
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 27/9/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 27/9/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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