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18/11/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Victoria Derby Day, Saturday, 4th. November.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Set weights.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cajou
Result: second
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: De Jetcat
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.90
Jockey: Kevin Sweeney
Trainer: Keith Dryden

R2 $60,000 3YO. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Westicaro
Result: first

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Super Smudge
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $60,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tall Timbers
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Jockey: Darryl McLellan
Trainer: Darren Smith
Winner: Zedaction
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Garry White


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $23,000 Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Susie Mine
Result: second
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Brian Mueller
Winner: Cyber Dream
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Kayla Stra
Trainer: Heather Frew

R3 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Hong Kong Cheri
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: Ray Cleaver
Winner: Get Up
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Holly McKechnie
Trainer: Darryl Dodson

This edition of Punt to Win:
Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup betting on tips that "everyone knows"
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Winning Jockeys horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Flemington & Randwick
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 11/11/06 - Flemington & Randwick
Betting tips from the track: 7/11/06 - Melbourne Cup Day
Betting tips from the track: 4/11/06 - Victoria Derby Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/11/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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