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18/11/2006 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategies

Are plunge horses winning betting tips from the racetrack? Does it pay to follow the money?

When the horse wins, so you can judge for yourself how sensible or otherwise it is over the long term to "follow the money" on the tote, we will also include as an example the the SuperTab tote dividend. Plenty of tote punters will have collected that tote dividend. Most of them would have "followed the money" on the tote.

Are they getting big enough winning dividends when they "follow the money" on the tote to cover themselves for when "following the tote money loses"?

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (20%) to $4.00 (25%) it will qualify. You can also check tables of betting prices and what their percentages are at Odds calculator.

Melbourne Cup Day
Tuesday, 7th November, 2006

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote
Finish
Bodacious Harmony
6.00
4.00 8.33% --- 6/15
Mark Zahra (jockey) Robert Smerdon (trainer)
Victoria Derby Day
Saturday, 4th November, 2006
Rosehill

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote
Finish
Cajou
3.20
2.40
10.42% --- 2/7
Rod Quinn (jockey) John Hawkes (trainer)
Clang Fashion
3.50
2.80 7.14% --- 2/6
Tim Clark Matthew Smith
Sumac
3.40
2.80
6.30% 3.00 1/10
Zac Purton Kevin Moses
 
Not one horse firmed 5% or more in the bookmakers' betting ring at the big Victoria Derby Day meeting held at Flemington. Just like on Melbourne Cup Day, with big money around, the bookmakers, wary of being caught, were opening the markets very tight.

Of course the tote doesn't have to worry about being caught out by a betting plunge and losing money on the race. If any horse is "plunged" on the tote on raceday it just reduces its odds for all punters, including those who wgered on it before the plunge!

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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