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18/11/2006 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Randwick - 11/11/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Beauty Watch
59kg.
6
1600
$1.85fav.
1/9
Flemington - 11/11/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Royal Ida
60kg.
8
1400
$8.00
3/11
Rosehill - 4/11/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tall Timbers
59kg.
2
1900
$3.80fav.
5/7
Doomben - 28/10/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Yell
59kg.
12
1300
$10.00
8/18
Randwick - 21/10/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tall Timbers
60.5kg.
5
1800
$5.50
7/7
Reigning To Win
59kg.
2
1200
$1.50fav.
1/8
Eagle Farm - 14/10/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Yell
59kg.
4
1200
$9.00
4/15
Cheltenham - 14/10/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Free The Robber
59kg.
3
1400
$5.00
4/7
Flemington - 7/10/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
On A Jeune
60.5kg.
9
2530
$11.00
5/12
Lad Of The Manor
59kg.
7
2000
$3.80fav.
13/15
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup betting on tips that "everyone knows"
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Winning Jockeys horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Flemington & Randwick
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 11/11/06 - Flemington & Randwick
Betting tips from the track: 7/11/06 - Melbourne Cup Day
Betting tips from the track: 4/11/06 - Victoria Derby Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/11/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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