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19/9/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 5th. September, 2009.

Randwick: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Princess Quality
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Eagle Farm: Track Good

R2 $45,000 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Blackwoods Choice
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Rex Lipp
Winner: Southerly Impact
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: Owen Turpin
Trainer: Donald Baker


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $22,500 Open. Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Last Shotgun
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Adam Trinder
Trainer: Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
Winner: Tradesman's Choice
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Adrian Lechmere
Trainer: Gordon Richards

R2 $31,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Griff
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Bubbles All Around
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.10
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

R3 $26,500 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Timetable
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R4 $26,500 Mares. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Tulavar
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Jolly

R5 $26,500 3YO & up. 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 2035 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Red First
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
How useful are horse racing form lines?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Moonee Valley Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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