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19/9/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 5th. September, 2009 when the $400,000 Makybe Diva Stakes was run.

Flemington
Track: Good
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 4.69

R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handiacp.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Avenue
Days since last start: 197
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $125,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Carrara
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R3 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Light Vision
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 7-15
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R4 $75,000 4YO & up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Trustus
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Fran Houlahan

R5 $200,000 Let's Elope Stakes.
Mares. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Cats Whisker
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R6 $250,000 Danehill Stakes.
3YO. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Black Caviar
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.45
Top fluctuation: $1.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R7 $400,000 Makybe Diva Stakes.
Group 2. Weight for Age.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Typhoon Tracy
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R8 $200,000 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes.
4YO & up Quality. Group 3. Handicap.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Swift Alliance
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R9 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Speed Gifted
Days since last start: 119
Distance last start: 1620
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Comments:
A good day for punters with five favourites winning from the nine races. Four of the winning favourites won their previous race which was no longer than 21 days earlier. What's that they say about winners keep winning and fit horses?

By contrast, in R3 and R4 the favourites, Light Vision and Trustus both were unplaced at their previous start. They both ran second this time.

Two favourites resumed after a spell of more than 100 days. In R1 Avenue resumed after a spell of 197 days and finished second, but in R9 the Lee Freedman trained Speed Gifted resumed after a spell of 119 days and won over 1700 metres.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How useful are horse racing form lines?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Moonee Valley Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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