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19/9/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 29th. August, 2009 when the Group 2 Weight for Age Memsie Stakes was run.

Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 9 metres
Penetrometer: 5.07

R1 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Salinas
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Tonic
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R3 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Annesong
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiel
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R4 $125,000 H. D. F. McNeil Stakes.
3YO. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Starspangledbanner
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R5 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Miss Maren
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $200,000 Memsie Stakes. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Mic Mac
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R7 $100,000 4YO & up. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: First Command
Days since last start: 140
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Rios
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-9
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Comments:
Another good day for punters with four favourites winning. Three of the winning favourites won their previous race which was no longer than 21 days before their current race. First Command won for Lee Freedman after a spell of 140 days, though it did win its last race before a spell.

In R2 and R5 the favourites, Tonic and Rios finished tenth and eleventh. Both were unplaced in their previous race.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How useful are horse racing form lines?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Moonee Valley Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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