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19/9/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result from Saturday, 29th. August, 2009.

Morphettville: Track Dead

R2 $26,500 3YO Fillies. 0MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Miss Bellezza
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Lee Freedman

This edition of Punt to Win:
How useful are horse racing form lines?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Moonee Valley Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/9/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.