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25/4/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 4th. April, 2009, the day the $3,500,000 2YO Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes run over 1200 metres was held at Rosehill.

Caulfield: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Better Be The One
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.75
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Music In The Park
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctuation: $31.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $18.10
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: John Moloney

R2 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Marveen
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

This edition of Punt to Win:
Wet track horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/4/2009
The "Why Didn't I Back It" Massive Winning Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Doncaster Handicap Day - 18/4/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Golden Slipper Day - 4/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/4/2009
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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