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25/4/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 4th. April, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 13 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.38

R1 $70,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Better Be The One
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R2 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Marveen
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 4-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2440 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Grand Destiny
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 3-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Michael Kent

R4 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1440 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Tindal
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: John Sadler

R5 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Larry's Never Late
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Rodney Douglas

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Equal Favourite: Commanding Hope
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Chris Hyland
Equal Favourite: Nine Tales
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dale Smith
Trainer: Mick Price

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Fire In The Night
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 13-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R8 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Disciplined
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 8-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Comments:
In R6 equal favourite Nine Tales ran over 1200 metres after a break of 35 days and failed to win. Lack of race fitness? What was very unusual this week was that the three winning favourites all failed to run a place at their previous starts, with the winners of R7 and R8 finishing 13th. of 14 and 8th. of 10 respectively. Maybe punters can consider themselves fortunate collecting the money as we have seen over the weeks that favourites running down the track at their previous start have proved to be poor bets.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Wet track horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/4/2009
The "Why Didn't I Back It" Massive Winning Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Doncaster Handicap Day - 18/4/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Golden Slipper Day - 4/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/4/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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