|
25/4/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 11th. April, 2009.
Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 4 metres
Penetrometer: 5.2
R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: My Girl Helen
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michelle Payne
Trainer: Pat Hyland
R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: First Command
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Jaalippy
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Gordon Richards
R4 $100,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2390 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Precedence
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 5-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Bart Cummings
R5 $125,000 Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Light Vision
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R6 $125,000 Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Chasm
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Heath Conners
R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Here De Angels
Days since last start: 156
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 6-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R8 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Ravishing Reward
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Tony Noonan
Comments:
Once again a favourite resuming after a long spell did not win - Here De Angels in R7. In R3 the favourite, Jaalippy was unplaced. It was also unplaced at its previous start. However in R4 Precedence won, despite being unplaced at its previous start.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Wet track horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/4/2009
The "Why Didn't I Back It" Massive Winning Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Doncaster Handicap Day - 18/4/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Golden Slipper Day - 4/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/4/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights
reserved.
|