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25/4/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 18th. April, 2009.

Flemington
Track: R1-2 Dead, R3-8 Good
Rail: Out 5 metres
Penetrometer: 4.69

R1 $75,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Europa Point
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $75,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Black Caviar
Days since last start: 18 (Cranbourne Barrier Trial)
Distance last start: 800 (Cranbourne Barrier Trial)
Result last start: 1-9 (Cranbourne Barrier Trial)
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Marveen
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R4 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Iamzeus
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Flaherty
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Secret Flyer
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 9-22
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Mark Young

R6 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Marching
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Hissing Sid
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Wayne Hokai
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R8 $75,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Swooper
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 8-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Darryl Dodson

Comments:
Favourites punters had a successful day, with four winning. In R5 Secret Flyer had a freshen up of 42 days, dropped back from 1200 metres to 1000 metres and won. If it was trying to do the same dropping back from 1400 metres to 1200 metres or 1600 metres to 1400 metres it would have found the task much more difficult. In R8 Swooper was able to win despite finishing eighth at its previous start. Iamzeus could not win in R4 over 1400 metres. There was a break of 35 days between 1400 metres runs while in R7 Hissing Sid found the break of 28 days no help as it went up in distance from 1600 metres to 1800 metres.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Wet track horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/4/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/4/2009
The "Why Didn't I Back It" Massive Winning Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Doncaster Handicap Day - 18/4/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Golden Slipper Day - 4/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/4/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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