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8/8/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 1st. August, 2009.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R3 $100,000 3YO & up. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Strat's Flyer
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Allan Denham

R4 $70,000 3YO. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Speedy Natalie
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Hus Der Lieften
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gerald Ryan


Morphettville: Track Slow

R1 $26,500 3YO Fillies. 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Equal Favourite: Valace
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Equal Favourite: Pointe Dancer
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Linda Meech
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R2 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Dynamic Hero
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
Winner: Imperium
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.70
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R3 $26,500 Fillies & Mares. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Do The Dash
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas
Winner: Fantastic Dream
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R4 $26,500 3YO. 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Candle
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do racing software betting programs turn $1,000 into one million dollars?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/7/2009
The First Up Spring Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/7/2009 & 18/7/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/7/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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