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8/8/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 25th. July, 2009.

Moonee Valley
Track: Slow
Rail: Out 7 metres
Penetrometer: 5.00

R1 $100,000 Hurdle. Set weights.
Distance: 4050 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Yamanaura
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 3300
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Brett Scott
Trainer: John Wheeler

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Tan Tat Brav
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Doug Harrison

R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Abitofado
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2100
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R4 $200,000 Steeple. Set weights.
Distance: 4050 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Pentiffic
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 3300
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Trent Wells
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston

R5 $70,000 3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1533 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Babington
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Greatwall Of China
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R7 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Beltrois
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1210
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Equal Favourite: Commanding Hope
Days since last start: 70
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 7-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Chris Hyland
Equal Favourite: Guild
Days since last start: 273
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 13-14
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

Comments:
In R8 Guild resumed after a long spell of 273 days and despite firming in the betting from $4.00 to $3.70 ran down the track. In the same race, Commanding Hope won after a much briefer spell of just 70 days.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do racing software betting programs turn $1,000 into one million dollars?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/7/2009
The First Up Spring Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/7/2009 & 18/7/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/7/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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