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8/8/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results and commentary about these results from the meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 18th. July, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 5.59

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Inkster
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Gruenfeld
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 15th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Pacino
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Clinton McDonald

R4 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Ishant
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1900
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R5 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: At The Crease
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R6 $100,000 Listed. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Gran Sasso
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Trustus
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston

R8 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: With Apologies
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

Comments:
What stood out was Trustus in R7 starting a short priced $3.10 favourite in a big field of 16 and running unplaced. Punters apparently weren't worried that Trustus had a break of 35 days between 1400 metres runs. It cost them their money.

Craig Newitt was on the favourites in R1, R2 and R5. He got two wins at good odds.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do racing software betting programs turn $1,000 into one million dollars?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/7/2009
The First Up Spring Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/7/2009 & 18/7/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/7/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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