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8/8/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 25th. July, 2009.

Randwick: Track Heavy

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Winter King
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Joseph Pride

R2 $70,000 3YO and up. Rating 91. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mr Clangtastic
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Craig Agnew
Trainer: Marc Conners


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Steel My Heart
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Roslyn Day
Winner: Just Don't Ask
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Stephen Theodore

R3 $25,500 Rating 91. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Big Slick
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary
Winner: Silvercitymiss
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: David Balfour

R4 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Magical Pearl
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary


Here are the resulte from Saturday, 18th. July, 2009.

Morphettville: Track Slow

R1 $30,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: 5
Equal Favourite: Scarlett Rose
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Equal Favourite: Gunner Rock
Result: 3rdd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Linda Meech
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Bedouin Express
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.60
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Ricky Maund

R3 $30,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Candle
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do racing software betting programs turn $1,000 into one million dollars?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/7/2009
The First Up Spring Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/7/2009 & 18/7/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/7/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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