8/8/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 1st. August, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 3 metres
Penetrometer: 5.56

R1 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Ocean Challenger
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Darren Magro

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Porsched
Days since last start: 54
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: With Apologies
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Philda
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Michael Kent

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Red Buttons
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2100
Result last start: 6-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent

R6 $125,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: I Am Invincible
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Peter Morgan

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Global Warming
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 6-8
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Silky Smooth
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: David Hayes

Comments:
In R2 the favourite Porsched resumed over 1000 metres after having won its last start 54 days earlier over 1200 metres. Porsched finished third. In R4 the favourite, Philda, jumped in distance from 1300 metres to 1600 metres and ran unplaced. In R5 the favourite, Red Buttons, won despite finishing 6th. of eight three weeks earlier. However there was no such luck for punters who backed Global Warming at the short odds of $2.70 in R7. Global Warming has also finished 6th. of eight at its previous start and again finished 6th. of eight!

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do racing software betting programs turn $1,000 into one million dollars?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 18/7/2009
The First Up Spring Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/7/2009 & 18/7/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/7/2009
Punt to Win index

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