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13/12/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the horse racing results from Saturday, 6th. December, 2008.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rst75 Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Blackbriar
Result: second
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Angel's Breath
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Ron Quinton


Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Instructor
Result: first

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: John Sadler

R2 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Zavana
Result: third
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Rapid Sensation
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.40
Jockey: Michelle Payne
Trainer: Stuart Webb


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $30,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Optimizing
Result: second
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Musigny
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
There's a winner in every horse race
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/11/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/11/2008
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/11/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/11/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/11/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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