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13/12/2008 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 29th. November.

Moonee Valley
Track: Dead
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 4.96

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Carlton Forward
Days since last start: 19 (public trial) - first race start
Distance last start: 800 (public trial)
Result last start: 1-7 (public trial)
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Turquia
Days since last start: 25
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 6-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $---
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R3 $60,000 3YO. Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: True Tales
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R4 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Arclace
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Ken Keys

R5 $60,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Crossthestart
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 6-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Amberino
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 4-14
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: John Moloney

R7 $60,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: The Fonz
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Jarrod McLean

R8 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Gran Sasso
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

Comments:
What stood out was in R5 Crosstheheart jumped from 1200 metres to 1500 metres with a break of 24 days and was unplaced. In R8 Gran Sasso also failed, this time coming back in distance 300 metres from 1300 metres to 1000 metres.

This edition of Punt to Win:
There's a winner in every horse race
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/11/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/11/2008
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/11/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/11/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/11/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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