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13/12/2008 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Sandown Lakeside horse racing track on Saturday, 22nd. November, 2008.

Sandown Lakeside
Track: Slow
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 5.48

R1 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Take All Of Me
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Bruce & Jean Purcell

R2 $60,000 3YO. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Gobrom
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1218
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: John Moloney

R3 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Flying Ruby
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: John Moloney

R4 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sensational Toy
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Luke Oliver

R5 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Lord Monty
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 4-16
Result this start:2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

R6 $100,000 Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Eskimo Dan
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Bevan Laming

R7 $60,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Pit Lane
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-7
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R8 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Whitehaven Girl
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Ray Cleaver

Comments:
Both winning favourites were placed at their previous start - a first and a third. Of the six losing favourites two were not placed while Pit Lane was also not placed if you consider finishing third out of seven not a place.Try collecting on a place bet with that finish! The two winning favourites also had their last start within the previous two weeks. The one favourite which had its last start longer than this - Take All Of Me - 28 days, finished sixth.

This edition of Punt to Win:
There's a winner in every horse race
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/11/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/11/2008
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/11/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/11/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/11/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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