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13/12/2008 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 6th. December, 2008.

Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: 10 metres out
Penetrometer: 5.1

R1 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Instructor
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2100
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: John Sadler

R2 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Zavana
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Hayes

R3 $60,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Tolka Rock
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Chris Hyland

R4 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Ravishing Reward
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R5 $60,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Keano
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R6 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Orbit Express
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Steve McKinnon

R7 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Blackstone Rose
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Shane Stockdale

R8 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Let Loushe
Days since last start: 32
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Comments:
What stood out was Tolka Rock in R3 racing 28 days after its previous start and Let Loushe in R8 racing 32 days after its previous start both losing.

This edition of Punt to Win:
There's a winner in every horse race
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/11/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/11/2008
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/11/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/11/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/11/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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