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13/12/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 29th. November.

Randwick Kensington Inner Track: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rst76. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Lotseventy
Result: third
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Allan Robinson
Trainer: Kris Lees
Winner: Romany Star
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.60
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Robert Pearse

R3 $70,000 3YO. Rst76. Handicap.
Distance: 1150 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Rock Me Baby
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: David Payne

R4 $70,000 3YO and upward. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: My Sweet Cookie
Result: first

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Jamie Quinnell
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Equal Favourite: Slick Sniper
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Grant Buckley
Trainer: Tracey Bartley


Moonee Valley: Track Dead

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Carlton Forward
Result: second
Starting price: $3.90
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Kwassa Kwassa
Starting price: $9.50
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.90
Jockey: Matthew Allen
Trainer: Shane Stockdale

R3 $60,000 3YO. Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: True Tales
Result: first

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Tony Vasil


Morphettville: Track Good

R6 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Periduki
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: Lisa Lefoe
Winner: Letmeentertainyou
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.60
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Karen Byrnes

This edition of Punt to Win:
There's a winner in every horse race
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/11/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/11/2008
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/11/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/11/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/11/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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