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14/3/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Blue Diamond Stakes Day, Saturday, 21st. February, 2009.

Caulfield: Track Good
Blue Diamond Stakes Day

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Aichi
Result: 1st

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Doomben: Track Heavy

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Fulmonti
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Chris Jordan
Winner: Fort 'n' Won
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Matthew Palmer
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R4 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1030 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Azzaland
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Garry Baker
Trainer: Richie Stephenson
Winner: Heart
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Michael Nolan

R5 $45,000 Class 6. Set weights.
Distance: 1640 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Encosta Tszyu
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Scott Galloway
Trainer: Brian Smith

This edition of Punt to Win:
Make money wagering wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
The Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Australian Cup Day & Futurity Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/2/2009
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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