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14/3/2009 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Randwick - 7/3/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hot Danish
61kg.
8
1400
$3.80
1/10
Morphettville - 7/3/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Terango
60kg.
4
1050
$6.00
4/9
Rosehill - 28/2/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
My Vegas
59.5kg.
5
1100
$6.00
6/9
Hadaaf
59kg.
3
1800
$8.50
3/12
Eagle Farm - 28/2/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Stage Shaker
59.5kg.
2
1600
$7.00
3/8
The Jackal
59kg.
3
1200
$8.00
1/13
Morphettville - 28/2/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Racer's Run
59.5kg.
1
1600
$10.00
12/15
Rosehill - 21/2/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Vision And Power
59kg.
8
2000
$4.40
1/8
Judged
59.5kg.
15
1200
$8.50
9/17
Cheltenham - 21/2/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Palace General
59kg.
2
1000
$10.00
10/15
Randwick - 14/2/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hadaaf
61.5kg.
7
1600
$6.00
5/7
Moonee Valley - 14/2/2009
Australia Stakes Day
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Reaan
59.5kg.
1
1200
$9.00
12/12
Caulfield - 8/2/2009
C. F. Orr Stakes Day
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Scenic Shot
60.5kg.
6
1800
$5.00
2/10
Rosehill - 7/2/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hadaaf
60kg.
5
1400
$7.00
1/7
Rosehill - 31/1/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mount Verde
59kg.
7
1100
$9.00
2/10
Vision And Power
59kg.
1
1500
$2.90fav.
2/9
Randwick - 24/1/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Coniston Bluebird
59.5kg.
2
1800
$3.40fav.
5/6
Eagle Farm - 17/1/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bazzooka
60.5kg.
6
1000
$4.40
4/13
Majorca
59kg.
5
1600
$4.20fav.
3/14
Gold Coast - 10/1/2009
Magic Millions Day
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Keen Commander
60kg.
6
1000
$6.00
1/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Make money wagering wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
The Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Australian Cup Day & Futurity Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/2/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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