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14/3/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 21st. February, 2009.

Caulfield
Blue Diamond Stakes Day
Track: Good
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 5.15

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Aichi
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 11-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Beaming
Days since last start: 107
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R3 $175,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Gallica
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 8-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R4 $200,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Theseo
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R5 $175,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Fravashi
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 4-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R6 $400,000 Group 1. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 18
Favourite: Scenic Blast
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Daniel Morton

R7 $1,000,000 2YO. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Rostova
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Steve Richards

R8 $125,000 4YO and upward. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Barlinnie
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Trevor Bailey

R9 $125,000 Mares. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Prima Nova
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

Comments:
In R1 punters breathed a sigh of relief when they ignored Aichi's previous poor run, wagered odds on and won by a long neck. In R2 yet another favourite failed when resuming after a spell of over 100 days.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Make money wagering wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
The Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Australian Cup Day & Futurity Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/2/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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