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14/3/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 7th. March, 2009.

Flemington
Australian Cup & Newmarket Handicap Day
Track: R1-3 Dead, R4-9 Good
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 4.85

R1 $150,000 2YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Maka Ena
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $125,000 3YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Damselfly
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $300,000 2YO. Group 2. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Rostova
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Steve Richards

R4 $300,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Gold Water
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R5 $200,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Group 3.
Set weights with penalties.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Typhoon Tracy
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $1,000,000 Group 1. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 22
Favourite: Burdekin Blues
Days since last start: 29
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 14th.

Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Barry Baldwin

R7 $750,000 3YO. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Fravashi
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R8 $1,000,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Theseo
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R9 $125,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Whobegotyou
Days since last start: 126
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Comments:
Last Saturday three favourites that were unplaced at their previous start in their current campaign all failed to win. This week punters collected the short odds on Rostova, which was a well beaten fifth at its previous start. In R4 and R8 the two short priced Gai Waterhouse trained favourites both failed to win. In R9 punters who took the short odds on Whobegotyou winning first up over 1400 metres after a spell of 126 days also left the money in the bookies' bags.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Make money wagering wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
The Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Australian Cup Day & Futurity Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/2/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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