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14/3/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 28th. February, 2009.

Caulfield
Futurity Stakes Day
Track: Good
Rail: Out 4 metres
Penetrometer: 5.12

R1 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Fifth Avenue Lady
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R2 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Essaouira
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.55
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Indirect
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 6-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Bart Cummings

R4 $250,000 2YO. Open. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Tale Of Love
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R5 $175,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Pre Eminence
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Road To Rock
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

R7 $500,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Alamosa
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R8 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Nine Tales
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R9 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Champagne Harmony
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Comments:
In R3 the only favourite that was unplaced at its previous start failed to win. Three of the four winning favourites had their previous start 14 days earlier; the other 10 days earlier. It's worth noting that in R4 Road To Rock successfully jumped in distance from 1500 metres to 2000 metres.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Make money wagering wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
The Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Australian Cup Day & Futurity Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Blue Diamond Stakes Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/2/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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