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29/8/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 15th. August, 2009.

Rosehill: Track Good

R5 $150,000 Premiere Stakes. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Phelan Ready
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Jason McLachlan
Equal Favourite: Fritz's Princess
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Kris Lees
Equal First: Mentality
Starting price: $16.00
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Equal First: Kroner
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Bart Cummings


Doomben: Track Good

R1 $50,000 Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Zero Rock
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.24
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Michael Hellyer
Trainer: Kelso Wood

R2 $45,000 Fillies & Mares. 0MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Daddys Little Girl
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Brad Stewart
Trainer: Gillian Heinrich
Winner: Kryptelon
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Luke Rolls
Trainer: David Kelly


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Silvercitymiss
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: David Balfour
Winner: Dynamic Hero
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Daniel Clarken

R2 $26,500 3YO Fillies. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Rose Darmore
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

R4 $26,500 3YO & up. 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 2029 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Testa Jesta
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Woodland Jack
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Ten Golden Horse Racing Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Spring Carnival Winners Leading Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 8/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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