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29/8/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 22nd. August, 2009.

Moonee Valley
Track: Good
Rail: Out 4 metres
Penetrometer: 4.34

R1 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Black Caviar
Days since last start: 112
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.20
Top fluctuation: $1.22
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.10
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Coronation Diva
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Jason Warren

R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Pass Me By
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2510
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $100,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights and penalties. Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Carrara
Days since last start: 63
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.15
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R5 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: La Goulue
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 5-8
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $70,000 Open. Handiacap.
Distance: 1519 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Bonindi
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Darryl Dodson

R7 $100,000 4YO & up. Set weights and penalties. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Secret Flyer
Days since last start: 126
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Mark Young

R8 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Eagle Falls
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Jason Maskiel
Trainer: David Hayes

Comments:
It was a day for favourites' punters to savour with six favourites winning from the eight races!

In R1 Black Caviar resumed after a spell of 112 days while in R7 Secret Flyer resumed after a spell of 126 days. Both won. Having spells in excess of 100 days was no concern on a day like this! In R4Carrara had a 63 days break, dropped back in distance from 1400 metres to 1200 days and of course also won.

The favourites in R2, R3 and R8 all won. Their previous starts were 14 days earlier, which they also all won. In R6 Bonindi again finished second - it had finished second seven days earlier.

Punters must have been in shock when in R5 La Goulue, which had a break of 35 days between races and had finished unplaced at its previous start, finished seventh, starting at $2.10. We regard that more as normal service resuming in that race!

This edition of Punt to Win:
Ten Golden Horse Racing Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Spring Carnival Winners Leading Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 8/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

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If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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