Punt to Win
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 22nd. August, 2009.
R1 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
R2 $70,000 3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
R4 $100,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
R5 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
R6 $70,000 Open. Handiacap.
R7 $100,000 4YO & up. Set weights and penalties. Open. Handicap.
R8 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
In R1 Black Caviar resumed after a spell of 112 days while in R7 Secret Flyer resumed after a spell of 126 days. Both won. Having spells in excess of 100 days was no concern on a day like this! In R4Carrara had a 63 days break, dropped back in distance from 1400 metres to 1200 days and of course also won.
The favourites in R2, R3 and R8 all won. Their previous starts were 14 days earlier, which they also all won. In R6 Bonindi again finished second - it had finished second seven days earlier.
Punters must have been in shock when in R5 La Goulue, which had a break of 35 days between races and had finished unplaced at its previous start, finished seventh, starting at $2.10. We regard that more as normal service resuming in that race!
This edition of Punt to Win:
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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