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29/8/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 8th. August, 2009.

Flemington
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 7 metres
Penetrometer: 4.67

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1610 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Stoneblack
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R2 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Eagle Falls
Days since last start: 154
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 6-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Kota Fujioka
Trainer: David Hayes

R3 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Coronation Diva
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 2025
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Jason Warren

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2510 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Pass Me By
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 2025
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R5 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sincengarni
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R6 $150,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Mic Mac
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 5-18
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1710 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Clandon
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Michael Kent

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Silky Smooth
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: David Hayes

Comments:
In R2 Eagle Falls, $3.10, was a rare winner as favourite that resumed after a spell of over 150 days. While in R6 Mic Mac, $2.10, was also a winner resuming after a spell of 147 days!

This edition of Punt to Win:
Ten Golden Horse Racing Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Spring Carnival Winners Leading Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 8/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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