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29/8/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 15th. August, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 6 metres
Penetrometer: 5.28

R1 $70,000 Open. Handiacp.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Pacino
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Clinton McDonald

R2 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Tonic
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R3 $100,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Starspangledbanner
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R4 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Rostova
Days since last start: 119
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 7th.

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Steve Richards

R5 $70,000 4YO and up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Von Costa De Hero
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 7-13
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

R6 $200,000 J. J. Liston Stakes. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Typhoon Tracy
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R7 $125,000 W.J. Cockram Stakes.
Mares. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Equal Favourite: Cats Whisker
Days since last start: 91
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Equal Favourite: Annesong

Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1210
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 14
Equal Favourite: Miss Maren
Days since last start: 112
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 12-14
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price
Equal Favourite: Bonindi

Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Darryl Dodson

Comments:
There was one favourite which had its previous start no longer than seven days earlier. That was in Pacino in R1 which started at $3.00 and won.

In R4 Rostova resumed after a spell of 119 days and was unplaced starting at the odds of $3.20; in R5 Von Costa De Hero resumed after a spell of 147 days and was also unplaced while in R6 Typhoon Tracy also resumed after a spell of 147 days and was also unplaced. However punters backing favourites resuming from spells of 100 days and longer were saved in R8 when equal favourite Miss Maren won.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Ten Golden Horse Racing Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Spring Carnival Winners Leading Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 8/8/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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