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29/8/2009
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 8th. August, 2009.
Randwick: Track Dead
R1 $70,000 3YO & up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Voice Coach
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller
Flemington: Track Dead
R1 $70,000 3YO Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1610 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Stoneblack
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Chartreux
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.50
Jockey: Mark Ewe
Trainer: David Hayes
R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2510 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Pass Me By
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R5 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sincengarni
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Salinas
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Eagle Farm: Track Good
R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Monashee Dancer
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Anthony Pattillo
Trainer: Darren Bell
Winner: Shakeva
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.20
Jockey: Danny Craven
Trainer: Sharon Finch
Morphettville: Track Dead
R1 $26,500 3YO 1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Miss With Attitude
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas
R3 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Brough Superior
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Winner: Civil
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: John Hickmott
This edition of Punt to Win:
Ten Golden Horse Racing Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Spring Carnival Winners Leading Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/8/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/8/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/8/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/8/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 8/8/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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